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GBP/USD – 4H.
The British pound after two rebounds from the correctional level of 38.2% (1.2501) and the formation of a bearish divergence in the MACD and CCI indicators nevertheless completed fixing at this level, which allows traders to expect continued growth of quotations in the direction of the next correctional level of 50.0 % (1.2668). No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today. Purchases remain the most attractive for traders.
Most of yesterday's news, the GBP/USD pair passed by. If the meeting of the Bank of England did not imply any reaction of traders since neither changes in monetary policy nor the speech of Chairman Mark Carney took place. For example, the economic report on changes in retail sales in the UK in August could be taken into account by traders. And if it had been taken into account, the pound would hardly have stayed in its position, as the growth rate of retail sales slowed down.
In the meantime, I would like to draw traders' attention to one important fact. Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson are trying to push through Brexit's options through parliament. And so far, we can say with confidence that both Prime Ministers are not succeeding in this. With Theresa May, everything is clear. Three attempts to accept her version of the agreement failed and the resignation of the Prime Minister. With Boris Johnson, everything proceeds in a similar scenario. The only difference is that Johnson wanted to implement Brexit "No Deal", and now, according to rumors, he is trying to negotiate with the European Union. And the basis of this agreement is the very deal of Theresa May. As you can see, the circle closes. But the biggest stumbling block is not the "backstop" clause. It lies in the Parliament, which, it turns out, has already blocked the implementation of Brexit at least 4 times. Thus, it is time for Boris Johnson to consider the reasons for Theresa May's failures and realize that if Parliament cannot be persuaded, there will be no Brexit. And forcibly pushing through the parliament of Brexit "No Deal" will fail. Boris Johnson could already be convinced of this. Thus, the main option is to negotiate with both the Parliament and the European Union. The alternative is to abandon Brexit through a second referendum, which is advocated by Jeremy Corbyn. Both options suddenly appear on the side of the British pound, as they imply the impossibility of implementing Brexit "No Deal", which is so feared by the British currency.
What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today?
The pound/dollar pair closed above the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2501). Thus, today I expect the pair to continue to grow in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% (1.2668). An informational background today is unlikely to hinder the growth of the pound, but Brexit news is still the most important for GBP/USD traders. I recommend selling the pair below the psychological mark of $1.25.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.2668 and a stop-loss order at the level of 1.2501 as a close above the Fibo level of 38.2% was performed.
I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.2308 after closing at 1.2501, with a stop-loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2%.
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