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At the short-term level, the 1/2 WCZ of 1.2414-1.2398 can be considered the first reduction target. When the pair reaches this zone, a partial fixation of sales opened last week will be required. If the test of the control zone leads to an increase in demand, then purchases will come to the fore and the monthly maximum will again become the goal.
Working in a downward direction until the end of September is more profitable as the pair is trading above a monthly control zone. The probability of closing the auction below 1.2428 is 70%.
An alternative model of decline will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs below 1.2398. This will open the way for a further decline to a weekly control zone of 1.2246-1.2213. This model will provide an opportunity for repeated sales of the tool. It is important to note that from a medium-term point of view, this decrease will be a correction to the last three-week growth of the pair.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
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