21.10.201911:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading strategy for EUR/USD on October 21st. The last ECB meeting under Mario Draghi

EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.1164 and can perform a close over it in the next few hours. This will allow traders to count on the continuation of growth in the direction of the next maximum level from August 13 – 1.1232. The upward trend channel remains valid, however, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair have already flown much higher than it. A bearish divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, the formation of which will allow us to expect some drop in quotations, but it should be understood that this divergence will be corrective, that is, a strong fall should not be expected, and I would not recommend opening sales on this signal.

The key event for traders this week will undoubtedly be the meeting of the European Central Bank. This meeting is noteworthy for being the last in Mario Draghi to lead the organization. Further, on November 1, his post will be taken by Christine Lagarde, who will "rake the Augean stables." The key question now is whether there will be another lowering of the ECB key rate, or will Ms. Lagarde deal with this issue already? Most expert agencies agree that Draghi will not lower the rate for the second time in a row. But the economic reports of the last month from the eurozone hint at the opposite. The effect of a net reduction in the deposit rate to -0.5% has not yet been observed. Inflation continues to slow, industrial production to decline, and the index of business activity is falling. Along the chain, these indicators will also pull down other equally important indices. For example, GDP. Thus, the EU economy still needs to be stimulated, and it's quite serious. The fact that a new round of the quantitative easing program announced at the last meeting of the regulator, will also begin to operate in favor of not reducing the rate. That is, most likely, the ECB will not be in a hurry with new stimulus measures since you need to first evaluate the effect of the QE program.

No less important and significant event will be the press conference of Mario Draghi. Over the past few years, the euro currency has finally started to grow against the US dollar. The reasons are different, but how will the ECB Chairman react to this phenomenon? Will he react at all? Also, Mario Draghi's assessment of the current economic situation, his risk assessment, and forecasts for the main economic indicators of the European Union are important.

Until Thursday, traders will continue to monitor any information relating to Brexit, because what is happening in the UK is again very reminiscent of the word "chaos". There is even reason to believe that the euro is growing for the company with the pound sterling, positively meeting the news about the possible transfer of Brexit to 2020.

What to expect from the euro/dollar currency pair today?

On October 21, traders can expect the pair to continue growing towards the level of 1.1232, which is the maximum from August 13. The information background is unlikely to support one of the currencies today, but the mood of traders is bullish. Thus, further growth of quotations is more preferable.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend selling the pair with a target of 1.1024 if the close is made below the level of 1.1106 (100.0% Fibonacci). A stop-loss order above the level of 1.1106.

I recommend holding open purchases of the pair with the target of 1.1232 with the transfer of the stop-loss order below the level of 1.1164.