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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and closed above the correction level of 50.0% (1.1030) after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, today, November 12, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% (1.1066). The downward trend channel allows such a scenario since at the moment the quotes are near its bottom line of the trend channel. Fixing the euro/dollar exchange rate under the Fibo level of 50.0% will work again in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall towards the next correction level of 61.8% (1.0995).
In the preview for the week, I said that the first days will be terribly boring, as no economic reports for these days are contained in the calendars of the US and the EU. The first day of the week fully justified this assumption. The euro/dollar pair started a pullback, which was warned in advance by the bullish divergence, while the activity of traders remains almost at zero. It is easy to assume that traders are waiting for tomorrow and the next days of the week when the information background will be stronger.
Thus, today the euro currency may roll back up a little more, but it is unlikely that the daily move of the pair will exceed 30-35 points. In such circumstances, each trader decides for himself whether he wants to open new deals if the market is almost immobilized. I believe that now is not the best time to trade, at least inside the day. In the longer term, you can consider opening deals, but then you have to guess the nature of all the economic reports that will be released this week. There will be many, and they will all be important. Thus, I believe that it is extremely difficult to guess the general movement of the pair for the next 4 days, especially since the direction may change.
Based on all of the above, I believe that today it is better to wait "on the fence", and tomorrow to trade "on the trend", "on the market" and "on the information background". The general information backdrop remains in favor of the US currency as China and the US move towards a trade agreement and the Federal Reserve appears to have taken a pause in the refinancing rate cut cycle. These are all absolutely bearish factors. And there is no positive news from the European Union. Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as ECB but has not yet made any comments on the change in the policy of the regulator. Economic data from the EU continue to disappoint, to a large extent, so the ECB has the necessary grounds for another reduction in the deposit rate. The quantitative easing program, which was restarted on November 1, has not yet yielded any positive results. At least, it is not reflected in economic reports.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
On November 12, traders are likely to continue to work out the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator and move the pair slightly upwards. At the same time, I do not expect strong growth in the euro currency, as I do not expect the high activity of the forex market on this day. I recommend selling a pair in the event of a close below the Fibo level of 50.0% with the target of 1.0995, but it is better to do this as close as possible to tomorrow and taking into account all the reports and events scheduled for Wednesday, November 13.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 1, 2019, and October 21, 2019.
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