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GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed some growth after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, which, however, stopped very quickly, as the information background was not in favor of the British pound. At the moment, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair continue to trade above the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836), which even keeps the chances of growth in the direction of the upper line of the downward trend corridor. Closing the pair under the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the lower line of the corridor.
Traders of the GBP/USD currency pair have been behaving very strangely in recent weeks. At first, the pair rose more than 700 points on the simple basis of negotiations between Leo Varadkar and Boris Johnson, after which it was announced a high degree of probability of a deal with the European Union. The deal was concluded, but the UK Parliament rejected it, so there is no special sense in this agreement now. Now, traders do not pay any attention to absolutely failed economic reports from Britain, which have been "pleasing" for two days, and today, most likely, there will be a third day of "joy". GDP, industrial production, wages – all these reports were worse than traders' expectations. Today, they may be joined by the inflation report, which is also expected to slow to 1.6% y/y. By the way, traders also managed to ignore the meeting of the Bank of England, at which two members of the board voted for an immediate rate cut, which gives every reason to assume a rate cut at one of the next two meetings. Thus, there is no positive news for the pound right now, from the word "completely." So why doesn't the British currency resume falling when all the factors are in favor of it? After all, even the European currency shows a fall, although it was precisely from the European Union that no weak data came on Monday and Tuesday.
One of the hypotheses of this behavior of traders may be the departure of most of these same traders from the market. This may explain the generally low activity of the pound/dollar pair, which is traded with obvious tension. Traders could leave the market only because of uncertainty with Brexit or with re-elections to parliament. If this hypothesis is correct, then until these issues are clarified, that is, at least until December 12, the pound will continue to trade in a narrow price range. While it is very clearly visible due to the trending corridor. It is by the exit of quotes beyond its limits that it will be possible to understand that traders are beginning to return to the market.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2836), however, given the downward trend channel and its small width, I do not expect a serious increase in the British currency. Perhaps the situation will change if the quotes perform a close over the downward channel, but so far this has not happened, I support the option of falling to the lower line of the channel, and possibly lower. The information background today can cause demand for both the pound and the dollar. You should be ready to move in any direction.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019.
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