20.11.201914:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 20th. The probability of a trade agreement breakdown and a fall in German producer prices moderate risk appetite

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The euro fell in the first half of the day against the US dollar after the release of a report on German producer prices, which in October this year decreased by 0.2% compared to September, indicating continued problems. Yesterday's statements by Donald Trump about the agreement and the introduction of new trade duties also dampened risk appetite and reduced demand for the European currency, returning the EUR/USD pair to the lower border of the side channel of 1.1056. Buyers of the euro have already made a successful attempt to keep this level, but rapid growth is not yet observed, which ultimately can keep the downward trend. A more important task is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1082, as only this will keep the upward trend and lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.109 and 1.131, where I recommend taking the profits. In the afternoon, we are waiting for the publication of the Fed minutes, which may already weaken the position of the US dollar. In the scenario of a further decline in EUR / USD, you can only look at the rebound from the minimum of 1.1028.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers coped with the morning task and reached the support level of 1.1056, however, it was not possible to gain a foothold below this range. Most likely, the emphasis will be shifted to the Federal Reserve System protocols, and if there is no talk of further lowering interest rates in the USA, then a break of the support of 1.1056 will push the pair even lower to the lows of 1.1028 and 1.0994, where I recommend taking the profit. However, it will be possible to talk about the formation of a new downward trend only if the support breaks 1.1028. If the demand for the euro returns today in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions on a false breakdown of the resistance of 1.1082, but you can sell EUR/USD on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1109, or sell the euro even higher – from the level of 1.1131.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is just below the 30 and 50 moving averages, but it is too early to talk about the exact alignment of the downward correction.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1056 will lead to a larger sale of the euro, but growth will be limited by the upper level in the area of 1.1090.

Description of indicators

• MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
• MA (moving average) 30 days – green
• MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
• Bollinger Bands 20