09.04.202007:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Historic OPEC meeting: intrigues, participants, scenarios

The world's largest oil producers will meet today and tomorrow. A meeting between energy ministers of the G20 countries will be held on Friday. Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Norway, the United States and Tobago and Trinidad are also invited to the meeting on Thursday, but not all have confirmed their participation. And no one from the Trump administration will be present for the online call on Thursday.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and their OPEC allies are discussing production cuts, but the US has so far only suggested a reduction in production caused by market forces.

Russia does not consider a reduction in supplies due to lower demand or lower prices. Russia is considering a real reduction in production volumes within the framework of the proposed OPEC+. This is Moscow's first statement on a crucial aspect of a potential agreement, and it indicates that President Vladimir Putin expects a greater contribution from the United States than what US President Donald Trump is willing to make.

Trump said that he did not agree to reduce US production during talks with Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Because US manufacturers have already cut back domestically since prices have fallen, this was an automatic response to the market.

"You want to stabilize markets by comparing the overall drop in oil demand with its cuts," Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said on a conference call when asked if Russia would agree to the US cutting production caused only by market forces. "These are completely different things," he replied.

Delegates from the countries said that options ranging from 10 million barrels per day to no deal are being considered, possibly for as little as three months. Some wonder whether three months of agreement will be enough to bring the markets into balance. The Treaty can be extended if some countries do not resist. Proposals for an annual agreement are recorded in separate reports.

Scenarios: Two are reported to be offered:

1) OPEC+ will not be limited by production restrictions, which will lead to a continuation of the current situation.

2) OPEC together with all producers will implement a joint reduction of 10 million barrels by the end of the year, in which the US, Canada and Brazil will participate. Abbreviations will be distributed as follows: Saudi Arabia will reduce at least 3 million barrels per day from current levels, Russia - 1.5 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels in the Persian Gulf, the United States, Canada and Brazil - almost 2 ml barrels per day, and Texas - at least 500,000 barrels per day.

During these two weeks, major oil companies have made a number of orders for tankers on temporary charters, while the market is oversupplied.

"Given that many physical crude oil markets are in trouble, global production should already be declining, and a slow improvement in the overall balance sheet may begin soon even without the help of OPEC+," analysts and consultants from JBC Energy said.

Analysts remain skeptical that such a large and diverse group of oil producers would agree and implement a collective cut, especially since each country says it will not reduce production if the United States refuses to cut.

Russia and other OPEC countries say this meeting could be historic, cutting about 10% of global supplies to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. This meeting is less than a day away, but there is still no consensus among the countries on most of the key aspects that have been brought to a common denominator.