20.05.202008:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Financial markets are heated by speculation around vaccine trials in the US (GBP/USD pair is expected to decline)

The markets were hit again by a wave of frustration caused by fiddling around the production and testing of COVID-19 vaccines. But on this background, the shares of the pharmaceutical companies Gilead and Moderna received good support, and the capitalization of the companies significantly increased in the moment, which, incidentally, cannot guarantee their further growth.

On Monday, STAT, a specialized American medical journal, reported that Moderna Inc is conducting successful vaccine trials. This triggered a strong growth in demand for company shares and commodity assets and weakened the US dollar.. But on Tuesday, the fog broke and it became clear that everything was not quite like that, and far from being quite like that. But Moderna's capitalization on Monday soared to $ 29 billion. The company's shares last year traded at $ 20, but already reached $ 80 on Monday.

The question arises: what is it? And in our opinion, everything is extremely simple. Speculators understand that investors are almost at a low start and use any news on the topic of the coronavirus vaccine as an information guide for speculative transactions. If the situation around Moderna really turns out to be nothing, then the company's securities will also fall significantly, as has already happened with Gilead.

Why such a long introduction? It is important for understanding what drives the markets and why something is growing on it, but something is falling. In the currency market, the whole picture is tied to the dollar as a safe haven in critical situations. The dollar will be in demand until there is really real news about a really working vaccine. Only in this case can we expect a truly global weakening of the US currency. So far, as we indicated earlier, the market will be heated up, and the currency pairs where the dollar is present will remain in the side ranges. At the same time, prices will simply shift to their upper boundaries, then to the lower. Such movements are still expected at least until the end of the current month.

Why in the last few months, the author has hardly considered the data of economic statistics for countries and does not compare them? This is precisely due to the fact that investors understand that this is pointless at the moment when all attention is paid to how severe the consequences of the pandemic will be for individual countries and the world economy as a whole. How long will it last and how quickly will the drug against COVID-19 be developed. Everything else is secondary.

Forecast of the day:

The GBPUSD pair seems to be heading down in the wake of declining optimism in the markets regarding the speedy production of COVID-19 medicine, as well as published weak consumer inflation data in Britain. We believe that a decrease in price below 1.2245 will be a catalyst for its price fall to 1.2160 with the prospect of a decrease to 1.2100.