05.06.202010:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: ECB statements raises the euro

In a recent press conference, ECB Head Christine Lagarde made the following statements:

"The incoming information confirms that the eurozone economy is experiencing an unprecedented recession.

Accordingly, we decided on a set of monetary policy measures to support the economy during its gradual opening and ensuring medium-term price stability.

First, the Governing Council decided to increase the coverage of the Pandemic Emergency Procurement Program (PEPP) by € 600 billion to a total of € 1,350 billion.

Second, we decided to extend the purchase of assets under PEPP until the end of June 2021.

Third, the Governing Council also decided to reinvest the main payments on securities with the coming maturity at the end of 2022.

Fourth, asset purchases (APP) of € 20 billion under our program will continue on a monthly basis, as well as purchases of € 120 billion by the end of the year as an additional envelope.

Fifth, we are ready to continue fully reinvesting the main payments on derivatives purchased for a long time under APP, up to the date until the ECB finds opportunity to raise interest rates.

Sixth, we decided to leave the interest rates unchanged. "

Forecasts of ECB members say that the real GDP of the eurozone will decrease by 8.7% in 2020, and recover by 5.2% in 2021. In 2022, GDP will increase by 3.3%.

The prospects of GDP growth, which were substantially revised downward by 9.5% in March, are now upwards by 3.9% in 2021, and by 1.9% in 2022.

HICP inflation, meanwhile, fell to 0.1% in May, lower than the 0.3% record in April, according to the preliminary estimates of Eurostat. The drop is mainly due to low energy prices, therefore, the current and futures oil prices will likely lower the general inflation further in the coming months and remain in this range until the end of the year. In the medium term, weaker demand will exert the same weaker pressure on inflation.

Such figures confirm the idea that the inflation rate is close to 2%.

With regards to fiscal policy, a coordinated fiscal position remains critical due to the sharp contraction of the eurozone economy. The measures taken should be as focused and temporary in nature as possible in response to the emergency.