09.07.202015:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil slowed down before the next batch of statistic report

No further changes were noted in the price of crude oil on Thursday. This is after a notable rise on Wednesday updating maximum values recorded in March this year. At the same time, both oil brands excelled in stability and growth. All this happens on the eve of the next batch of statistics on the level of raw material reserves in the United States of America.

The stocks of crude oil on July 3 were 5.654 million barrels higher as noted in the official report of the Ministry of Energy. At the same time, fuel inventories decreased by 4.839 million barrels. The reserves of distillates increased by 3.136 million barrels. While the strategically important terminal in Cushing also recorded growth of 2.206 million barrels.

Real data did not coincide with preliminary forecasts of experts who were preparing for the fact that the volume of raw materials decently reduced to a supposed 3.7 million barrels. The gasoline and distillates are also expected to dip by 1.2 million barrels and 500 thousand barrels, respectively.

The main reason for the increase in oil reserves in America was the rapid growth of imported raw materials. However, this fact reflects the positive changes that relate to an increase in demand for raw materials and fuel within the state, which then will affect the overall final statistics.

According to the latest data provided by the US government, oil production in the country should increase by 200 thousand barrels as early as next year. In June of this year, this figure was at around 11 million barrels per day. This year, production will remain at 11.6 million barrels per day.

The price of crude oil cannot escape the negative associated with the tense epidemiological situation in the world. The price would have rushed up and began to increase rapidly, but the news about the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world and in the US forces it to slow down or even stop its movement. Recall that after the systematic removal of quarantine measures began on the territory of the southern states of America, new outbreaks of the disease began to be recorded, which already now testify to the more rapid spread of COVID-19 than it was in the spring. As soon as the country began to come out of the crisis, how should it return to restrictive measures again? On Tuesday alone, 60,000 new COVID cases were recorded. This has been an anti-record since the start of the pandemic.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in September on a trading floor in London fell slightly by 0.02% or $ 0.01. These changes remained almost invisible, and the price consolidated in the region of $43.28 per barrel. Wednesday's trading closed quite positive with an increase of 0.5% or $0.21.

The price of futures contracts for WTI light crude oil for delivery in August on an electronic trading platform in New York also slightly decreased by 0.2% or $0.08, which sent it to the level of $40.82 per barrel. On Wednesday, it reflected an increase of 0.7% or $0.28.

It is clear that Brent crude oil managed to get to its maximum marks recorded in the early spring of this year which was in the range of $43.23 per barrel. A good rise was provided by news on stocks in the United States. Until now, market participants have been able to not pay much attention to the spread of coronavirus infection, even despite the fact that extremely disappointing news and forecasts appeared.

However, it seems that investors will still have to react to the growth of COVID-19, but whether the price of raw materials can start a negative trend from this is a big question. Buyers' appetites in the market have grown too much, and it will be difficult to immediately stop this rally. Nevertheless, some inhibition is not excluded, as it happened today. But a serious fall can be discussed no earlier than the moment when the price of black gold reaches the next strategically important mark of $ 45 per barrel.