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In contrast to the single European currency, the British pound strengthened its position against the US dollar in yesterday's trading and ended Wednesday's session at 1.3208. It is difficult to say what caused the course of yesterday's trading on the GBP/USD pair. Statistics from the UK were not received yesterday, and data from the US on orders for durable goods for July exceeded analysts' forecasts. Perhaps a lot for the main currency pair depended on the strong strengthening of the British currency against the euro. But since this review is dedicated to GBP/USD, let's start analyzing this tool from the daily price chart.
Daily
After closing yesterday's trading above the important technical level of 1.3200, the pound/dollar pair has a chance to once again test the strong resistance zone of 1.3250-1.3265 for a break. However, a lot for the US dollar will depend on the rhetoric of the speech of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Let me remind you that Powell's speech is scheduled for 14:10 London time. Against the backdrop of such an important event, initial applications for unemployment benefits and even revised data on US GDP for the second quarter are clearly fading. However, traders should also consider the output of these reports.
At the moment of writing, the pound/dollar slightly strengthens and shows a willingness to rise to the already designated resistance zone of 1.3250-1.3265, in order to test it for a breakout. However, it should be noted that much of the price dynamics of this and other dollar pairs will depend on the rhetoric of the speech of the head of the Fed. Jerome Powell is expected to devote his speech to the monetary policy aspects, namely, inflation and the yield curve of US government bonds. Of course, the head of the Federal Reserve will not ignore the still topical topic of COVID-19 and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy of the United States.
In my opinion, the further upward direction of the pair will be signaled by the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3265 and the closing of trading above this level. The probability of a bearish scenario will become more obvious in the event of a decline and the end of today's session at 1.3160, where the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator passes. Although this outcome is unlikely to give a clear answer about the bear market for GBP/USD. There are very strong support levels below 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.3000 and 1.2980. I believe that only a confident consolidation under 1.3000 will indicate the advantage of sellers.
H1
The hourly chart shows what waves the pair is trading in. If after the current rise, a reversal candle or a combination of candles appears near 1.3250 on this or 4-hour charts, a signal will be received to open short positions on the British pound. Although, again, experts believe that much of today's trading will depend on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. This is his day, which can largely determine the future fate of the US dollar.
According to the trading recommendations, as already mentioned above, I suggest waiting for bearish candle analysis models on the approach to 1.3250, and if they appear, sell the pair with small goals near 1.3200 and(or) 1.3160.
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