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Globally, the wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair looks quite convincing. The quotes leaving the highs reached recently confirms the assumption that the construction of wave 3 or C is completed. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located below the low of wave 4 in 5 in 3 or C as part of the construction of the assumed wave 4. If this will be completed, we can continue building the upward trend section within wave 5. It is still possible that the entire trend section which was originally in mid-March, will take on a three-wave form and will be completed around the level of 1.2011. However, this requires a high demand for the dollar in the coming weeks and months.
The wave pattern on a smaller scale shows that the formation of the supposed wave 5 in 5 in 3 or C is already done. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located around the 23.6% Fibonacci level within the declining wave 4 or, possibly, even a new declining set of waves. Moreover, wave 4 may take a three-wave form, but so far nothing like this can be traced in it.
Yesterday, there was no major news in the US or the EU. But today, the head of the ECB, C. Lagarde, will make a speech in the EU. She will present updated forecasts for inflation, unemployment and GDP for 2020-2021. In addition, she will hold a press conference, during which she can report on the state of the EU economy and how fast it is recovering. It may also sound whether additional incentives will be needed in the near future to support the economy. However, it can be assumed that the key rates following the ECB meeting will remain unchanged, since the regulator has never changed them since March, when the pandemic began around the world. The PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) program is also unlikely to be increased, since it was expanded by 600 billion euros and extended for six months at the previous meeting. Thus, the meeting will be most likely ignored and the most interesting information will be provided by Christine Lagarde during her speech.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said in an interview that he deliberately downplayed the danger of coronavirus, as he did not want to cause panic. He said that COVID-19 is certainly much more dangerous and deadly than seasonal flu, but he just wants to undervalue it. Is this Donald Trump's new move before the presidential election? One way or another, few Americans will believe that Trump deliberately misled them, especially since there was no panic about the coronavirus anywhere in the world. And even when it started spreading rapidly, people just stuck to the quarantine or ignored it, but didn't panic.
General conclusions and recommendations:
Since the euro/dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C, I recommend selling the pair with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1706 and 1.1520, equivalent to 23.6% and 38.2% for Fibonacci. Now, if wave 4 is actually being built at this time, then it can take a three-wave form.
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