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EUR/USD – 1H.
On October 9, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process after rebounding from the upward trend line and completed consolidation above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1812). Thus, the growth process of quotes can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.1859). The mood of the majority of traders remained bullish. Meanwhile, news from America continues to arrive either strange or negative. The main thing to note is the strange recovery of Donald Trump from the coronavirus. The president has been suffering from this ailment for just over a week and all this time there have been no external signs that Trump is ill. In the end, Trump's doctor said that the president can leave the hospital, and his body began to produce antibodies against COVID-2019. It all ended with the fact that Trump said that he was completely cured of the coronavirus and that he might have immunity. Thus, the full-fledged work of Trump is resumed. He began to actively participate in the election race. This week, he will visit various American cities and events.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On a 4-hour chart, the graphic picture remains very boring. The pair's quotes have returned to the side corridor and continue to trade inside it. A rebound was made from the lower border of this corridor, as well as from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), thus, the growth of the pair's quotes has a good chance of continuing in the direction of the upper line of the side corridor.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). The pair's rebound from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566). Closing above it will increase the chances of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2084). However, the key now remains the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On October 9, the European Union and America's economic event calendars were empty. Nevertheless, traders continued to actively get rid of the US currency.
News calendar of the US and EU:
ECB - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (11:00 GMT).
On October 12, another speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled in the European Union, while in America the calendar of events is empty. However, traders may not need a lot of news to continue to get rid of the dollar.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most significant and important category of "Non-commercial" traders continues to get rid of long contracts, closing them during the reporting week - almost 11 thousand. Also, about 2 thousand short-contacts were opened, thus, the mood of major players concerning the European currency has become much more "bearish". However, in general, I can't say that in recent months the major players have started to look in the direction of selling off the euro. Since the beginning of August, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators has been decreasing, however, the total number of short contracts is also decreasing. And in total, the hands of "Non-commercial" are concentrated four times more long-contracts than short. Thus, I would say that the chances of the continued growth of the European currency are still high.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1707 if the close is made under the trend line on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair today are advisable with the goal of 1.1859 since a rebound was made from the trend line, and the quotes were fixed above the level of 50.0% (1.1812).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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