18.11.202010:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Road to progress: digital euro will displace fiat dollar

Financial innovation takes a slower pace than other areas. The global financial market looks like a clumsy colossus compared to the cryptosphere, where change is happening at an amazing pace. However, progress has now reached key currencies. Calls for the introduction of digital euros and dollars are increasingly heard in the global market, and their impact on the future of the financial world is being studied.

According to experts, the ECB is seriously considering launching a virtual analogue of the paper euro. A month after the publication of a report on this topic, Christine Lagarde, the head of the regulator, confirmed the intention of the monetary authorities of the eurozone to receive their e-currency in two to four years. If such a scenario is realized, the ECB may outstrip other central banks, including the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts believe that the eurozone will face the same difficulties in issuing digital money as other countries. However, these complexities pale before the unique opportunity to challenge the dollar. The only challenge will be to minimize the risks required for the stable functioning of the global financial system.

Experts' calculations are based on the strategy behind central bank digital currencies (CBDC). It is about giving up cash almost completely, as consumers prefer electronic payments. At the same time, transfers between individuals (P2P payments) are carried out, which are not controlled by banks. However, the latter option does not suit central banks, which are used to managing the monetary system and keeping their finger on the pulse. The challenge for developers of digital means of payment is to find a compromise between regulators and users.

Experts believe that one of the significant risks in the introduction of the electronic euro is its close connection with the banking system. It is possible that citizens will find digital central bank wallets more reliable than traditional bank deposits. As a result, a huge amount of money will flow into the "bins" of regulators. Such measures will undermine the banking system, threatening its collapse.

Another problem is the priority of fiat money for most Europeans. They do not plan to give up cash, which slows down the implementation of the digital euro. According to the Bank for International Settlements, card payments are used less frequently in the eurozone than in other regions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is making its own adjustments. Recently, Europeans are increasingly using cards, although the amount of electronic and cash payments are almost at the same level.

According to analysts, the digital currency may be one of the ways for the ECB to demonstrate its solvency and advancement in innovation. Another factor in favor of introducing crypto-euro is the desire to bypass the greenback, and by a large margin, since the Fed is slow to launch a similar currency. Therefore, the introduction of the electronic euro is a matter of honor for the ECB, as well as a way to strengthen the international role of the single currency, increasing the demand for it among foreign investors.

Many experts agree that the introduction of the digital euro will not only weaken the position of the greenback but also deprive it of its dominant role. As a result, the financial market will be dominated by the euro - both in electronic and paper form. Economists see the main danger in the undermining of the traditional banking system, which from habit can fail. In this regard, experts urge not to rush to launch the virtual euro but to calculate all the risks and possible negative consequences, as well as to foresee the ways out of them.