01.12.202014:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD analysis on December 1. Scotland is preparing for legal proceedings if London bans a new referendum

In the most global terms, the construction of the upward trend section continues, however, the wave marking takes a complex form and may become more complicated more than once. The section of the trend that started on September 23 took a five-wave form, but not an impulse one. A successful attempt to break the previous peak indicates that the markets are ready for further purchases of the British pound. The supposed wave e has also assumed a five-wave form and may be nearing its end. At the same time, the level of demand for the pound and the news background is now a priority.

The lower chart clearly shows the a-b-c-d-e waves of the upward trend section. The assumed wave e took a five-wave form, which is also visible on the chart. However, even with this complication, it is nearing completion. Even if the entire upward section of the trend continues to build and complicate, now three waves should be built down, as we see the top five on the chart.

The pound continues to be in demand in the foreign exchange market, despite the completed type of wave e. Thus, it seems that the news background strongly supports the British, but in practice, this is not the case. Trade negotiations are ongoing, and every conceivable deadline has already been missed. There is exactly one month left until the end of the transition period. Most likely, the European Parliament and the British Parliament will not have time to ratify the agreement, given the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays. Nevertheless, the parties and the markets continue to hope for a successful end to this saga.

However, for Britain, it is not just Brexit and the absence of a trade deal that pose a danger. Scotland has been sending clear signals for a year or two that it wants to leave the United Kingdom and return to the European Union. London has already rejected Edinburgh's request for a second independence referendum (the first was in 2014 and ended in a victory for those who voted to remain in the UK). However, subsequent events (the British referendum and Brexit) forced a change of opinion among Scots, and recent opinion polls show that most of them want to leave Britain. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she may go to court to get permission to hold a new referendum. "This inalienable right to self-determination cannot and will not be subject to a Westminster veto. We all see what happens to those who try to hold back the advance of democracy. They are being swept away," Sturgeon said. Thus, the UK could potentially lose Scotland in the coming years. Needless to say, what losses will this demarche of Edinburgh turn into for the British economy?

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech in the UK today, and in America – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Thus, today the markets may have enough grounds for active trading. But it will depend on what the two chapters say.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar instrument continues to build an upward trend, however, its last wave is nearing completion. Thus, now I recommend looking closely at the sales of the instrument, however, the British still do not give clear signals about the end of the upward section of the trend. At the same time, purchases of the instrument are now quite dangerous, given the uncertainty associated with the trade deal.