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24.12.202012:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: UK and EU remained divided over issue on fishing

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Exchange Rates 24.12.2020 analysis

On Wednesday, the UK and the EU, while trying to strike a trade deal in time to avoid a violent split at the end of the year, remained divided over competition and fishing.

Ireland said it is still possible to reach an agreement before the UK leaves the EU on December 31, 11 months after it officially left the bloc and entered the transition period, keeping it in the customs union and the European single market until the end of the year.

But with a dizzying array of conflicting opinions coming from both sides, Britain has still not agreed to ease the pain of its departure, by maintaining access to the single market with zero tariffs and zero quotas.

UK Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick told Sky News that "there is currently no progress in negotiations."

In particular, Irish Prime Minister Michelle Martin said the deadlock is caused by the issue of fishing rights. The two parties still can not compromise on the production volume of EU fishing vessels in the UK waters, especially since Britain believes that its amount should be reduced, as well as specified, in the contract.

Nonetheless, Martin said that given the progress that has been made, there should be an agreement soon. Failure to agree would deal a heavy blow to the economy.

Therefore, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are in close contact and are expected to have another telephone conversation.

UK said the negotiations remain "difficult" and highlighted differences. Meanwhile, the EU was more optimistic.

In any case, Johnson said he would not sign any deal that would undermine UK's sovereignty.

The failure of negotiations may draw applause from many Brexit supporters, however, it would also cause huge disruptions in merchandise trading, which accounts for half of the annual EU-UK trade, which amounts to nearly a trillion dollars.

The scale of Brexit's possible disruption was highlighted when France closed its borders with the UK for 48 hours, when a new strain of coronavirus was discovered in the UK. During this time, thousands of European truckers found themselves stranded in the south of England, thereby disrupting food supplies.

Martin said that if there is a positive breakthrough on Wednesday or Thursday, Europe could work on the text on Christmas Day.

"I am still quite optimistic, but I don't have any news to tell you this morning," said Robert Jenrik."There is still a lot of disagreement over fishing or equal treatment."

In terms of competition, EU leaders fear that following Brexit, the UK may loosen regulation to disrupt other markets and increase EU market share.

And aside from competition, the parties are arguing about what and how much the EU can fish in UK waters. This speaks of the complete distrust of both parties in each other.

EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier said EU diplomats called the UK's latest proposal "completely unacceptable."

Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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