08.01.202111:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical analysis and forecast for USD/CHF on January 8, 2021

On the last day of weekly trading, I would like to pay attention to another major currency pair of the Forex market - the dollar/franc. For a clearer picture, let's start with the weekly timeframe.

Weekly

As can be seen on this chart, the USD/CHF pair is trading in a downward trend, however, in my personal opinion, a reversal is brewing for a correction or even a change of course. At the moment, the pair is in a weekly descending channel with parameters: 0.9900-0.9758 (resistance line) and 0.9055 (support line). As you know, from the technical side, the trend change occurs after the true breakdown of the trend line, which is the designated brown resistance line. However, since the pair is located in the lower part of the channel, that is, under the middle dotted line, it is still very far from reaching the resistance line. First, the USD/CHF bulls need to return the price above the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which passes at 0.8973, after which it is necessary to pass up another line, Kijun at 0.9111, and only after that it will be possible to test for a breakdown the upper border of the descending channel, that is, the line trend. Thoughts about a possible trend change or going for a correction arise by looking at the current shape of the weekly candle, but data on the US labor market, which will be published at 14:30 London time, can significantly change the current type of candle and affect the subsequent direction of the dollar/franc.

Now I will once again return to the theory of closing three consecutive candles above or below the broken level. Please note that only one weekly candle closed below the support level of 0.8850, and the next two closed above this level. That signals a false breakout of the level of 0.8850, as well as its strength. To confirm their intentions to return the pair to an upward trend, the USDCHF bulls need to maintain the shape of the current weekly candle, and even better, finish trading above the middle dotted line of the descending channel. In my opinion, bears have a much more difficult task in terms of tools. During today's trading, they will need to radically change the situation and close the weekly trading below the previous lows at 0.8793. In this case, the pair's further downward prospects will remain fully relevant.

Daily

And on the daily chart, a reversal model of candle analysis called "Morning Star" has already appeared. To be honest, it has been a long time since such a model appeared on the market. Let me remind you that the model consists of three candlesticks, which are highlighted on the daily chart. If market participants take this signal seriously and start working on it, we should expect the price to grow, which means we should prepare for purchases of this currency pair. However, I do not think it is advisable to do this right here and now, since the blue Kijun line is already very close, at 0.8884, which can provide serious resistance to growth attempts. For those who want to open new positions today, on the last day of weekly trading, I recommend looking at purchases after a short-term decline in the area of 0.8835 with a target of 0.8880. For those who do not want to take risks, I advise you to stay out of the market, and after the actual closing of the week, determine your trading plans for USD/CHF for the future.