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The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave completed form. The internal wave structure of the proposed wave 5-5 does not look quite convincing and may require additions and adjustments, as well as the entire wave 5. Nevertheless, the upward trend section has long been nearing completion. At the same time, the demand for the pound remains quite high. A successful attempt to break the previous high (about 37 figures) will lead to a new complication of the upward trend section.
On the smaller chart, wave counting has also undergone certain changes and may require adjustments. Within the upward wave 5, the wave structure can be complicated as many times as necessary. At the moment, it is quite possible to resume the increase in the quotes of the instrument within the 5-5-5 wave. At the same time, the wave marking of the 5-5 wave does not look quite convincing. A delicate point, you need to be careful. The 127.2% Fibonacci level is important, and a successful breakout attempt will indicate that the markets are ready for a new increase.
Andrew Bailey and Silvana Tenreyro spoke this week with their vision for negative rates, monetary policy, and the future of the economy. Now the attention of the markets has shifted again to the coronavirus and political upheavals in the United States. I can't say that these topics have a strong impact on the pound/dollar instrument. Moreover, the euro/dollar instrument is moving entirely differently now. Nevertheless, there is nothing more to pay attention to at present. Market news in the UK was calm for today. In America, there is a stream of news, but it has little to do with the economy. Thus, in such a situation, I recommend relying on wave analysis or varieties of technical analysis that give a clearer picture of the state of the market.
However, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, on Wednesday, expressed concern about a new strain of coronavirus that has appeared in Brazil. On January 10, Japan detected infections with this strain in a group of four people who had just returned from Brazil. And earlier in the UK itself, the so-called "British" strain appeared. And in total, the coronavirus already has at least five or six varieties.
It is not yet clear whether the vaccine against the main virus will also work against all its strains. Representatives of pharmaceutical companies concluded that they will, and if not, then it will take a little time to develop new vaccines. Nevertheless, the authorities of many countries of the world are in no hurry to make fiery speeches about the victory over the pandemic. Given that the rate of vaccination is not too high, it can be assumed that 2021 will somehow be the year of continuing the fight against the pandemic.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The GBP/USD instrument can resume the construction of an upward trend section at any time. Thus, at present, I recommend buying the instrument in case of a successful attempt to break the 127.2% Fibonacci level with targets located near the 40th figure, within the expected 5-5-5 wave of the upward trend section. A failed breakout attempt may lead to a new departure of quotes from the reached highs.
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