08.03.202118:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD on March 8, 2021. Is the euro preparing for a new upward wave?

The wave counting on the 4-hour chart still looks quite convincing and does not raise any questions. In my previous reviews, I have already said several times that I expect at least three downward waves to form, after which the Euro/Dollar quotes may resume increasing. At the global level, the wave counting of the trend section, which originated at the very beginning of this year, may acquire the form a - b - c - d - e. If this assumption is correct, then the instrument will continue to move in three wave formations in the next month. At the moment, the construction of two waves of the next three has already ended, and soon, the expected wave c may also complete its construction. Thus, the decline is still ongoing, but it can end at almost any moment. There are no signs and grounds to suppose the complication of the current wave counting yet.

The news background is still in line with the wave pattern. On Friday, there was no news in the European Union, while in the US, the reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate were released. Both turned out to be much better than the market's expectations, therefore, the decline in quotes continued, and with it the construction of a downward wave. However, it seems to me that it is not the news background that is of priority importance for traders now, but the too strong decline in instrument quotes. Here, either more global factors can be traced than simple economic statistics, which are not available every day, or, on the contrary, the concentration of traders exclusively on wave counting. The strong growth in the yield of US government bonds, which most analysts associate with the appreciation of the dollar, may act as a global factor.

However, from my point of view, wave counting still has a greater influence on the movement of the instrument. Now it really looks like a textbook. In addition, if you study the graph of changes in the yield of US bonds, you will see that the periods of growth in yield and growth in the US dollar do not coincide. Moreover, the yield growth began much earlier than the decline in the Euro/Dollar instrument quotes. Thus, I am even more inclined towards the variant with the perfect working out of the current wave counting. Now it is even more important that the current downward trend does not get complicated. The demand for the dollar is high right now, which could lead to a strong lengthening inside wave c. In this case, the entire wave counting may be violated. However, while I still wait for the completion of the construction of wave c and the beginning of the construction of a new triple up. Based on the analysis, I recommend preparing in the coming days for a new top three and buying the instrument with targets located near the level of 1.2175, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci. However, this requires first an upward reversal of the instrument, which can be identified as the completion of wave c.

The wave counting of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a rather complex, horizontal appearance. The instrument will probably build alternating three wave structures for some time. Thus, after building three downward waves, I expect the instrument quotes to rise by 300 points.