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XAU/USD has attracted bullish positions near 1,812 where 2/8 Murray is located. Gold has made a solid technical bounce above 1805, this price level was last seen on May 16th.
Investors are worried about possible stagflation in the US (high levels of inflation with an economic recession). On Monday, the Wall Street Journal published rumors that the US Federal Reserve was considering raising the interest rate by 0.75% after inflation hit a record high in May.
This rumor among investors was the reason why the foreign exchange market fell along with the stock markets and cryptocurrencies. Tomorrow, in the American session, the data will be known and it is likely that the market will react against the trend because they have already discounted an increase of 0.50%.
On the 4-hour chart, we can see a downtrend channel formed since May 25. Around the bottom of the trend channel, we can see that gold has been bouncing. It is now trading above the support zone of 2/8 Murray. It is showing signs of continuing the technical bounce which could reach the 21 SMA in the next few hours around 1837.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose sharply and hit highs in nearly 20 years. Since gold is negatively correlated with bonds, a correction through profit-taking is likely. This correction of the bonds could favor the recovery of gold and also a correction of the US dollar.
If Treasuries and USDX make a technical correction, we could expect gold in the next few days to reach the 200 EMA around 1858.
The eagle indicator on June 14 has reached the extreme oversold zone and a technical bounce is imminent in the next few hours which could favor our strategy to buy gold above 1812, with targets at 1830 and 1843 (3 /8 Murray).
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