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GBP/USD 5M
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair was trading as it did on a holiday. The volatility of the day was at 44 points, so it is obvious that it was extremely difficult to trade that day. However, we warned in the last article that it makes no sense to expect strong movements on July 5 with an empty calendar of macroeconomic events. Thus, on Monday the market, in fact, had nothing to do, but the index of business activity in the UK services sector was published, which rose from 61.7 to 62.4. It can hardly be said that this report somehow influenced the mood of traders and their desire to buy the pound. Nevertheless, a buy signal was formed early in the morning, as the price broke the Kijun-sen critical line. It is interesting that later on the pound/dollar pair reached the nearest target level at 1.3859 and formed two rather strong sell signals near it. The long position closed at about 17 points profit. Traders had absolutely the right to open short positions around the level of 1.3859, which should have been manually closed since we were approaching the evening with profit at around 10 points, and the price could not fall back to the critical line. As a result, traders managed to earn about 27 points, which is just an excellent result with such volatility.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 6. A global corporate tax of 15% will be introduced!
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 6. The UK celebrates the 5th anniversary of the Brexit decision.
GBP/USD 1H
The pair settled above the downward trend line on the hourly timeframe, which means that the market sentiment has changed to an upward trend. Of course, this is only an hourly timeframe and the upward movement may not be that strong. However, in general, the situation on the hourly timeframe is quite understandable, but many timeframes predict movements in different directions. Therefore, we recommend that you pay more attention to the timeframe that you are trading at at a given time. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3731, 1.3800, 1.3859, 1.4000. Senkou Span B (1.3892) and Kijun-sen (1.3801) lines can also be sources of signal. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. The UK is set to publish the PMI for the construction sector on Tuesday. This is not the most important report, but in the event of a serious discrepancy between the forecast value and the actual one, traders can count on 20-30 reaction points. In the second half of the day, as we have already said, the US ISM PMI will be released, which may also cause a slight market reaction. In general, today can again be a rather boring day with very low volatility.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 50 points during the last reporting week (June 22-28). However, there is still a feeling that the current decline in the pound is a temporary phenomenon. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed different pictures at different times, but the pound still continues to grow in the long term. A group of non-commercial traders closed 35 buy contracts (longs) and opened 454 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position decreased by 420 contracts. But seriously, you shouldn't even pay attention to these changes, since they are minimal. Nevertheless, the mood of professional traders is still bullish, as the total number of open buy contracts in the Non-commercial group remains 1.5 times greater than the number of sell contracts. Although professional traders for the pound did not buy the British currency at breakneck speed in the last year, nevertheless, the pound has been growing all this time. The first indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders (green line) has been falling in recent weeks, but this decline pattern is fundamentally different from a similar line for the euro. If there was a clear trend for the euro and the actions of large players were indeed reflected in the COT charts, then in the case of the pound, the data that reflect the actions of non-commercial traders is very chaotic and does not fit well with how the British currency has been moving in the last year. Actually, the indicators do not even show that the pound was actively bought, although the British currency has sharply grown over the past year and a half. Thus, once again it should be remembered that the pound may rise simply because the money supply in the United States has inflated and continues to swell. Consequently, the dollar depreciates, and as a result, the pound's rate rises.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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