12.07.202117:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC continues to fluctuate, but there are prerequisites for growth

Bitcoin spent June 2021 controversially, testing the bottom at around $28,800 and reducing its market dominance share by 3%. The cryptocurrency began the new month with fluctuations in the usual narrow range, which shifted towards $32,000- $35,000. At the same time, BTC is very successful in defending the long-term support level and shows the prerequisites for a possible bullish breakout.

We are talking about the level of support in the region of $32,500. It is above this mark that the first cryptocurrency has been traded since mid-May. As of July 12, the market has never closed under the indicated line. Given the bearish sentiment of the main indicators, the $32,500 mark becomes a platform for a possible reversal of the bitcoin price movement. In the short term, the MACD indicator is showing a bearish crossover and the RSI is below the 20 mark, indicating that interest in the cryptocurrency is waning. A similar trend is shown by daily trading volumes, which fell to $20 billion. In addition, social activity on the bitcoin network remains in the negative zone of -1.16. This is a record high since 2019, indicating a clear distrust from retail players entering the market with short-term goals.

Despite the obvious skepticism from the retail audience, whales continue to increase their presence in the asset. Over the past week, the number of bitcoins on the wallets of major players has increased by 65,000. This can provoke a local shortage of coins on the exchanges, which can become an impulse for price growth. However, this will not happen if the big players do not start walking. At the same time, there is a trend towards a possible recovery of BTC/USD quotes to local highs. This is evidenced by the positive level of the bitcoin financing rate, which was recorded on the largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

The main problem of bitcoin at the current stage is a series of difficult resistance zones in both directions, which prevent the asset from making a bullish or bearish breakout. Staying close to the averaged positions of the price range of $32,200 - $40,500, BTC cannot form a single movement front. At the same time, the main technical indicators point to the formation of a bullish trend, which does not develop due to the passivity of institutions and fears of retail traders. This situation was formed due to several factors. One of them was the recovery of the classic stock markets, which took away part of the audience of their crypto market. This is evidenced by statistics, which show trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges fell by 55% in June. Institutions do not take short-term actions and look to the long-term, which is not able to affect the current rate of the cryptocurrency. Considering all this, the market needs time to accumulate the required volumes. As of July 12, technical indicators are showing growing bullish sentiment, but there will be no strong upward movement in the coming week.

In a narrower perspective, bitcoin will continue to fluctuate within the lower horizontal support zone of $32,200, with the prospects of a bullish breakout to $36,000. In the hourly perspective, the MACD indicator forms a bearish intersection and continues to move down. The RSI indicator shows a slight upward movement, which will end around 20. Despite the pessimistic short-term prospects of bitcoin, everything is getting better globally. The mining industry is resuming work at full capacity, thanks to which the hashrate in the BTC network is growing rapidly. In addition, since July 5, bitcoin mining companies have resumed accumulating cryptocurrency. The interest of large companies in bitcoin is gradually resuming. The asset management fund Lincoln Avenue Capital bought a thousand bitcoins for $33,500. However, long-term purchases are unlikely to contribute to breaking through the local bearish flag, which has almost formed on the bitcoin charts. The next few days will show the market sentiment and determine the further movement of BTC quotes.