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A lot of macroeconomic reports are slated for release at the end of the trading week. Firstly, the EU will publish its preliminary inflation data. In March, the consumer price growth is expected to accelerate to 6.4% compared to 5.9%. Judging by surging oil prices in Europe, inflation is highly likely to advance more than anticipated. At the moment, it is a really negative factor for the euro. However, the US Labor Department report is still considered the main event of the day. Thus, the unemployment rate may decline to 3.7% from 3.8%. However, it is much more important that the number of new jobs in the non-farm sector may increase by 475 thousand. It is more than two times more than needed to support the labor market stability. In other words, the unemployment rate is likely to go on falling, thus boosting the greenback.
The euro/dollar pair dropped from the upper limit of the resistance area of 1.1120/1.1180. As a result, the volume of short positions jumped, thus allowing the euro to lose around 100 pips.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator pulled back from the overbought area and downwardly broke the middle line 50. This fact reflects bearish sentiment.
In the same period, the Alligator indicator has a primary intersection of MAs. This fact signals a possible change in the trading sentiment from bullish to a bearish one. On the daily chart, the indicator provided a signal about a correctional movement. It is possible to ignore it amid the current conditions.
On the daily chart, we see a correctional movement from the support level of 1.0800 within the structure of the downtrend. The general trend remains intact.
Outlook
At the moment, we see an insignificant stagnation near 1.1060. To resume the downward movement, the quote should settle below 1.1050. This, in turn, may cause a drop to 1.1000 or even deeper to 1.0970. According to the alternative scenario, the pair may return to the lower limit of the range of 1.1120/1.1180. The US dollar is likely to remain in demand.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that technical indicators are signaling sell opportunities on the short-term and intraday periods amid a pullback from the resistance area. In the mid-term period, technical indicators are providing mixed signals.
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