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Early in the European session, XAU/USD is trading around 1,896.24. We can see on the 4-hour chart that gold has reached extremely overbought levels which is likely to cause a technical correction towards the support zone of 1,881 (21 SMA) or towards the 8/8 Murray zone around 1,875 in the next few hours.
Yesterday in the American session, gold accelerated its advance and reached levels of May 2022 at 1,901.48, after the publication of consumer inflation data from the United States.
XAU/USD is currently trading below the psychological level of 1,900 and below the +1/8 Murray at 1,906 which acts as the next resistance, and seems determined to appreciate further.
Investors expect the Fed to reduce its pace of tightening amid declining inflation and a strong labor market, with a 78% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in February. As a consequence, treasury bond yields have been declining in recent days, which has supported the strength of gold.
In the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is in an overbought area. The likely scenario is that if there is a technical rebound towards 1,906, it could be seen as a signal to sell, with targets at 1,881 and 1,875.
On the condition of a sharp break, a daily close below 1,875 (8/8 Murray), and a break of the rising wedge pattern, we could expect gold to start a technical correction cycle. The instrument could even reach 1,860 and could even fall towards the 200 EMA located at 1,812.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,906, with targets at 1,882 and 1,875. The eagle indicator is in the extremely overbought zone which supports our bearish strategy.
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