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The USD/JPY pair surprisingly does not fall on the investor's mass flight from risk. Yesterday, the US stock index S&P 500 collapsed by 2.81%. The yield on 5-year US government bonds fell from 2.94% to 2.74% on Monday. We believe that the yen's stability is supported by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), as daily trading volumes from yesterday and the day before yesterday were at yearly highs, perhaps even at historical highs. Historical experience, however, shows that after stopping the panic, the BOJ gives the market a slack and the opportunity to adjust to a plateau. In the current situation, such a plateau can be a good technical support near the March 28 high (125.11), which coincides with the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. It was during that period - March 28-31, that the market also had the highest historical trading volumes.
On the four-hour scale, the price is consolidating under the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative area. So far, nothing violates the main scenario of moving towards the support of 125.11. Settling above the MACD line, above 127.90, may disrupt the downward plan, complicate the consolidation, and prolong it in time.
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