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17.05.202211:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Germany to stop Russian oil imports regardless of EU sanctions

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Exchange Rates 17.05.2022 analysis

Germany plans to stop importing Russian oil by the end of the year even if the European Union fails to agree on an EU-wide ban in its next set of sanctions, government officials said.Bloomberg reports that the government in Berlin is negotiating with alternative oil suppliers. It is confident that the next six to seven months will be enough to solve the logistical problems associated with a complete change of suppliers.The European Union discussed an oil embargo on Russia as part of its sixth sanctions package, but it failed to convince all states to vote in favour of the embargo. Hungary and Slovakia were given a reprieve until 2024 to replace their oil suppliers, but Hungary remains opposed to the embargo.Bulgaria has even threatened to veto the embargo unless it, too, receives a grace period as an exception.The rest of the European countries will have a six-month grace period to phase out purchases of Russian oil and replace them with imports from other countries. For oil products, the proposed grace period is eight months.The International Energy Agency estimates that if EU members agree to an embargo, Russian oil production could fall to 9.6 million bpd. This would be the lowest level since 2004. This could come at a time when global oil supplies remain tight amid growing demand, despite lockdown in China.

Exchange Rates 17.05.2022 analysis
Germany has signalled before that it is ready to abandon Russian oil, as well as Russian gas. Last month, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Germany could stop importing Russian oil by the end of the summer. He later said that before the tense geopolitical situation in Ukraine, the share of Russian oil in Germany's total imports had fallen from 35% to just 12%. At the same time, Germany did not name any new oil suppliers.

Irina Yanina
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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