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Politics, or rather the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, again intervened in the measured life of the financial markets, and provoked another panic. Moreover, the messages went one after another, and the most frightening news is about the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, near which multiple explosions were recorded. The very thought of a repeat of the Chernobyl tragedy is so frightening that it can certainly lead to capital flight from the eurozone. What is generally observed. Fears are reinforced by a number of other statements. In particular, Finland stated that Russian planes had intruded into its airspace. And the Russian Federation itself announced the prevention of an attempted attack on the Crimean bridge. All this naturally does not add confidence in security on the European continent, and forces investors to hastily transfer their capital to safer regions. Primarily to the United States. So in principle, all this led to a global increase in the dollar. After all, a sharp decline in the single currency, due to its scale, pulled other currencies along with it. Against this background, any macroeconomic statistics does not matter. So at the moment, the market will depend solely on messages from Ukraine. The dollar will start to fall in price only after the news flow subsides a little.
The EURUSD currency pair, after a short stagnation within the 1.0150 level, managed to regroup the trading forces. As a result, traders managed to properly increase the volume of dollar positions. This move led to the breakdown of the control value of 1.0100.
The technical instrument RSI H4 is moving in the oversold zone, which indicates an overheating of short positions in the euro. RSI D1 is moving in the lower part of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates the possibility of a continuation of the downward trend.
The MA sliding lines on Alligator H4 are staying below the 1.0150 level, which indicates a high chance of a further downward move.
On the trading chart of the daily period, there is an attempt to prolong the medium-term downward trend. The recovery of the dollar relative to the recent correction is 71%.
Expectations and prospects
Despite the local signal that the euro is oversold in the short term, there is still downward interest on the market. Thus, keeping the price below 1.0100 may well push the quote towards parity.
Traders can consider an alternative scenario if the price returns above 1.0100 in a four-hour period.
Complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the inertial downward move. Technical instruments in the medium term are also focused on selling, which is in line with the direction of the main trend.
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