26.07.202306:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Signal for USD/JPY for July 25-26, 2023: buy if breaks 141.35 (6/8 Murray - 200 EMA)

USD/JPY is trading inside a bearish channel formed since July 21 when the price reached 141.94. Currently, the price is falling and approaching the support level of the 200 EMA around 140.73.

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 141.08, so we expect it to continue its fall until it breaks the 200 EMA and 6/8 Murray located at 140.62. So, we could expect a bearish acceleration and the instrument could reach 139.06 (5/8 Murray).

The 4-hour chart of the Japanese Yen shows that the trend remains bullish since July 14. Therefore, in the case of a sharp break above 141.35, a bullish move could occur and USD/JPY could reach 7/8 Murray at 142.18 and finally, 8/8 Murray at 143.75.

During the American session, strong volatility will impact all currency pairs that have a cross with the US dollar due to the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. A rate hike of 0.25% is expected.

After the policy statement, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. He is expected to be blunter and more aggressive. This rhetoric could favor the US dollar. Thus, USD/JPY is likely to rebound on the back of the US dollar's advance. The instrument could reach 143.75 and even reach the psychological level of 145.00.

On the other hand, in case the medium-term outlook for the US dollar is weak, we could expect the Japanese to break the psychological level of 140.00 and trade below the EMA 200, which could be seen as a sign to sell the pair with targets at 139.06 and 137.50.

According to the 4-hour chart, the instrument is overbought. Therefore, a bearish movement is expected in the next few days only if the USD/JPY pair falls below 140.73 (200 EMA). Then, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell. The eagle indicator is now in an extremely overbought zone, so a technical correction is imminent in the next few hours.