13.04.202309:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 13/04/2023

Honestly, the euro's relatively modest growth is somewhat surprising. Especially considering that US inflation has slowed from 6.0% to 5.0%. Even the boldest forecasts suggested that it should have dropped to 5.2%. With such a sharp decline in inflation, the movement should have been somewhat more impressive. However, the euro stopped rising when the Federal Reserve's minutes was published. And according to this document, the US central bank does not rule out the possibility of another rate hike. What is interesting about this is that this information shouldn't be surprising at all. Even before the last meeting, almost all of the Fed representatives directly stated the need to hike rates until inflation drops even lower. So technically, the content of the minutes did not bring anything new. But the market behaved as if it was the first time it had heard of such a thing. It is this demonstration of short memory among market participants that is most striking. Moreover, the text refers to the possibility of another increase, in case consumer prices continue to rise further. While they are clearly slowing down faster than expected. This means that there is a possibility that the Fed will not raise interest rates further.

Inflation (United States):

So, the single currency maintains its growth potential. But today, the only reason for that is the euro area industrial production data, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 0.9% to 1.2%.

Industrial Production (Europe):

EURUSD reached the psychological level of 1.1000. Considering the recent price changes, it seems that the euro has fully recovered from its decline in February. This indicates a prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants.

Due to the sharp change in price, the RSI technical indicator reached the overbought zone on the four-hour chart, which coincides with reaching the resistance level of 1.1000. On the daily chart, the indicator ignores signals of the euro's overbought conditions, and the indicator hovers in the upper area of 50/70.

On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, and this corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

Since the euro is overbought in the intraday period, it may show a flat or a bounce. At the same time, climbing above 1.1000 will likely prolong the uptrend in the mid-term. In this scenario, speculators may ignore the technical signal.

The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, mid-term and intraday periods.