22.05.202309:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EURUSD on 22/05/2023

Despite the significant overbought condition of the dollar, the euro practically spent the last week by gradually losing its positions. This was because the macro data clearly favored the dollar. The euro only managed to trade higher on Friday as there was no macro data scheduled for release on that day. In terms of macro data, today's situation is exactly the same, and the outcomes of the G7 summit did not bring anything new or unexpected, so there is a high probability of repeating Friday's scenario.

The downward momentum slowed down around the level of 1.0750. A retracement occurred based on a clear technical signal of oversold conditions, which pushed the quote above the 1.0800 level.

Due to the retracement, the RSI left the oversold zone on the four-hour chart and reached the 50 middle line. If the RSI remains above the 50 mark, it may signal a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions.

The Alligator moving averages are headed down in the 4-hour chart. However, there is an initial signal of a change in interests due to two out of the three MAs intersecting.

Outlook

Keeping the price above the 1.0800 level allows for a subsequent increase in long positions on the euro. In this case, the quote could rise above the 1.0850 mark, which would be the next stage in the process of the euro's recovery from a two-week correction.

In regards to the bearish scenario, the quote should drop below the 1.0750 mark. In that case, we can expect the corrective move to persist.

A comprehensive analysis of indicators in the short-term and intraday periods suggests a stage of retracement.