23.05.202305:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to pay attention to on May 23? A breakdown of fundamental events

Analysis of macro data:

There will be very few macro data on Tuesday, and there won't be any important reports. The European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom will publish reports on PMIs in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as composite PMIs. If these values coincide or nearly coincide with the forecasts, there will be no market reaction. Traders will be most interested in the manufacturing sector, as business activity in the European Union and the United Kingdom is below the 50.0 threshold, while in the United States, it is exactly at that level. The services sector is relatively stable.

In addition, the US will release a report on new home sales, which is also an insignificant report. If the PMIs do not present any surprises, you can ignore all these reports. The data can also cause a 15-20 point reaction. In general, based on the macro data, it will be a "boring Tuesday."

Fundamental events:

There will also be few fundamental events on Tuesday. The only notable event is a speech by a representative of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee, Lorie Logan. But let's recall all the recent speeches. How many of them provoked any movements on the charts? The answer is obvious. Therefore, most likely, Logan's speech will not provoke any market reaction either. Traders currently have a clear understanding of the Fed's position, which is that there will be a pause in monetary tightening in June, and the interest rate will be raised at most one more time in 2023 in case of unforeseen circumstances. This information is no longer relevant for the dollar as the market has already priced in all the rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Fed.

General conclusions:

It is difficult to highlight any specific event or two in today's event calendar. All of them appear to be secondary of importance. I would advise you to pay attention to the PMIs as they will be the first estimates for May, and we could receive unexpected values. However, even they are unlikely to trigger strong movements. Both currency pairs may continue to trade within a range.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.

2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.

3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.

4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.

5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.