30.05.202311:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: When will the yen start to rise?

Speculators have intensified their bearish positions on the yen to the maximum as everyone anticipates a Federal Reserve rate hike.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds increased their short positions on the yen by 10,986 contracts, reaching 53,706. This is the highest level since June of last year.

While central banks of other countries were raising interest rates to curb inflation, the Bank of Japan maintained a very accommodative policy. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stated that they will patiently continue to ease monetary policy.

The difference in interest rates between Japan and the United States highlights the divergence in monetary policies and puts pressure on the yen.

Nevertheless, some strategists from banks in other countries believe that the yen is undervalued and expect a reversal of the trend, emphasizing that this will give the Bank of Japan an opportunity to start reshaping its yield curve control in the coming months.

According to UBS, the Bank of Japan will begin this process from July to October, changing its control over the yield curve. Accordingly, this will lead to a 15% surge in the yen's exchange rate by the end of the year.

According to the forecast of the French conglomerate Societe Generale, a 7% currency growth will occur in the next few weeks.