20.07.202304:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What events may affect market sentiment on July 20? Overview of fundamental events for beginners

Overview of macroeconomic reports

A light economic calendar for Thursday. There is nothing lined up for the EU and the UK. The US will release a few secondary reports on unemployment claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. There's a possibility that these reports can provoke some market reaction, but what kind of reaction are we talking about? Maybe around 20-30 pips? The euro desperately refuses to fall, and the pound started its downward movement only after a strong report on UK inflation. It is unlikely that Thursday's macro data will have a significant impact on the market.

Overview of fundamental events

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy about today's fundamental events. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have entered a "blackout period" ahead of their next meetings next week. This means that members of the monetary committees are prohibited from making comments on monetary policy. Accordingly, there will be no speeches or statements from them until the central bank meetings. Thursday might turn out to be quite uneventful, although, of course, the pound may try to extend its downward movement.

Bottom line

There are no significant fundamental events or reports. We can only mention the US unemployment claims report, but it will only affect the movement of currency pairs in case the latest numbers significantly deviate from forecasts. Otherwise, there should be no significant reactions.

Main rules of the trading system:

• The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce/drop or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
• If two or more trades were opened near a certain level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
• In a flat market, any currency pair can generate a lot of false signals or not generate them at all. But in any case, as soon as the first signs of a flat market are detected, it is better to stop trading.
• Trades are opened in the time interval between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American one when all trades must be closed manually.
• On the 30-minute timeframe, you can trade based on MACD signals only on the condition of good volatility and provided that a trend is confirmed by the trend line or a trend channel.
• If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

Comments on charts

Support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening long or short positions. Take Profit orders can be placed around them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading now.

The MACD (14,22,3) indicator, both histogram and signal line, is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with utmost caution or to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.