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Early in the American session, Gold is trading around 2,028.43, below the 200 EMA, and within the downtrend channel forming since early February. Gold is expected to make a strong break of the bullish trend channel in the next few hours. This move could allow traders to buy only if the price consolidates above 2,030 on the 4-hour chart.
On the contrary, in case XAU/USD fails to consolidate above 1/8 Murray and above the 200 EMA, we could clearly have a signal for a technical correction.
The eagle indicator is giving a negative divergence. It is observed that there is a decrease in volume which could cause a strong technical correction.
If this scenario occurs, gold could reach 0/8 Murray around the psychological level of $2,000 and could even reach the daily S-3 support around 1,990 -1,995.
The inflation data from the United States will be published in the next few hours. If the data is positive for the US dollar, we could see a rise in gold until 2,062, but if the data is negative, we could expect a strong technical correction in gold and it could reach 2,000.
Technically, gold is in a key area and our point will be 2,030. Below, we have a bearish signal and above, expectations could be positive to buy as soon as gold breaks the bearish trend channel.
Our strategy for the next few hours will be to sell. For this, we could expect gold to fall below the SMA 21 located at 2,025. Then, the outlook could turn negative and gold could reach the psychological level of $2,000 or even test this level.
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