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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair remains quite clear. Over the past year, we have seen only three wave structures that constantly alternate with each other. Throughout 2023, I have regularly mentioned that I expect the pair to be around the 5th figure, from where the construction of the last upward three-wave structure began. This target was achieved after the decline in July–October. After reaching this target, the construction of corrective wave 2 or b began, which has already taken a clear five-wave but more complex form after the US inflation report. Nevertheless, the working scenario remains the same – wave 3 or c construction.
Whatever the outcome of wave 2 or b (I warned that it could be much more complex), the overall decline of the European currency will not be completed, as in any case, the construction of the third wave of the downward trend is required. Most likely, wave e in 2 or b took an extended five-wave form, but it may already be completed.
The euro remains under market pressure.
The euro/dollar pair rate increased by ten basis points on Thursday, but all market participants understand that 10 points is just market noise. No conclusions can be drawn from such a movement. It is impossible to say that the first internal wave in the composition of 3 or c is complete – the deviation of quotes from the lows reached is too small. Today is generally a very dull day for the pair. The news background is weak, but tomorrow is strong. I do not exclude that the market has shifted its focus to Friday, when the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports will be released. I expect a stronger movement during the American session than during the European one (this happens quite often). Meanwhile, let's look at the reports from the European Union that were released this morning.
Industrial production in Germany decreased by 0.4% every month in October. The market expected, on the contrary, an increase of 0.2%. The GDP of the European Union decreased by 0.1% quarterly and by 0% annually in the third quarter. If the market expected exactly such a value quarterly, then on an annual basis, it expected to see +0.1%, but it was not meant to be. Consequently, these two reports are unimportant but must still support the euro. This proves that only some things are in order with the European economy. Some analysts regularly talk about problems in the US economy. As we can see, the European Union's economy is not particularly impressive either.
Based on the analysis conducted, the construction of a downward wave set continues. Targets around the 1.0463 mark have been perfectly worked out, and the unsuccessful attempt to break through this mark indicated a transition to the construction of a corrective wave. Wave 2 or b has taken a completed form, so in the near future, I expect the construction of an impulsive downward wave 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I still recommend sales with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. At this time, wave 2 or b can be considered complete.
On the larger wave scale, it can be seen that the construction of corrective wave 2 or b continues, which, in length, is already more than 61.8% from the first wave, according to Fibonacci. As I mentioned before, this is not critical; the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4th figure remains in force.
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