19.02.202414:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: trading scenarios on February 19, 2024

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USD/CAD entered the zone of the medium-term bearish market after breaking through the key support level of 1.3485 (200 EMA on the daily chart) during today's Asian trading session.

However, with the release on Tuesday at 13:30 (GMT) of inflation data in Canada, the situation may change again, and the pair's growth may resume above the important medium-term resistance level of 1.3495 (144 EMA on the daily chart). In the case of weak CPI indices and after breaking through resistance levels of 1.3490 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) and 1.3495, further growth of the pair, remaining in the long-term bullish market zone, should be expected—above the key support level of 1.3195 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).

In this case, the nearest growth targets could be the local resistance level of 1.3540 and the mark of 1.3600, beyond which the upper boundary of the upward channel on the daily chart passes.

In an alternative scenario, as noted above, the price will break the important support level of 1.3464 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), and then 1.3452 (the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from the level of 0.9700 to the level of 1.4600, reached in June 2016) and continue to decline towards the key support level of 1.3195, separating the long-term bullish market from the bearish one.

Its breakthrough, in turn, will return USD/CAD to the long-term bearish market zone.

Support levels: 1.3470, 1.3464, 1.3452, 1.3400, 1.3370, 1.3300, 1.3270, 1.3200, 1.3195

Resistance levels: 1.3485, 1.3490, 1.3495, 1.3500, 1.3540, 1.3600, 1.3615, 1.3700, 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3890, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios

Main Scenario: Buy Stop 1.3510. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Targets 1.3540, 1.3600, 1.3615, 1.3700, 1.3775, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.3890, 1.3900, 1.3970, 1.4000

Alternative Scenario: Sell Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3510. Targets 1.3452, 1.3400, 1.3370, 1.3300, 1.3270, 1.3200, 1.3195

"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached but can serve as a guide in planning and placing trading positions.

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