13.09.201116:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis, September 13, 2011

Breaches of Greece increased opposition in Germany to new financial aid Merkel leaving more and more alone in its efforts to save Greece.


Thus, the markets begin to discount an orderly restructuring of Greece or even leaving the euro was more likely the former than the latter. The biggest losses recorded by the French CAC affected by the explosion of a nuclear plant and the fear that Moody's downgraded the rating to its 3 major banks (BNP, Credit Agricole and Soc Gen) on maintaining a negative outlook by high exposure to debt helena.


WAS also was carried away by the negative tone, but rumors of future purchases of Italian debt by China allowed a bullish close. In this context, the Bund increased in price (IRR 1.74%) and the euro recovered some lost ground on Friday to $ 1.368.

The markets are reacting with fear to a situation whose consequences are difficult to calibrate. There are two problems with bankruptcy in Greece: the impact on the European financial system and contagion to countries like Spain and Italy.
In the first case, the French banks seem to be the most affected, but do not forget the Germans. The fall of these values ​​in the last few days speak for themselves. And in the contagion spreads are reflecting it. Today's auction of 5 years in Italy has reached historic highs of the bond return if the amount raised is approaching the maximum of the target.

What does the future hold?, Authorities in Greece seem committed to keeping the ship afloat, but there may come a time when the Greek people have to evaluate the actual cost of implementing austerity measures in order to maintain their membership in the euro area, and decide that you no longer worth it. Either that, or the increasingly discontented members of the main euro zone states may wonder what exactly they are getting in exchange for all the bailout money, and if they are investing more and more funds in the rescue, with little hope of recovering their investment. There seems to be an easy solution to the dilemma of Greece.