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The 154.32 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar, which resulted in the pair's decline by more than 40 pips.
Weak U.S. GDP data for Q4 led to a drop in the dollar, but it was quickly bought back. Nothing is surprising in the fact that today's reports on Japan's lower unemployment rate, the rising Tokyo Consumer Price Index, and solid industrial production growth did not strengthen the yen. This is because U.S. President Donald Trump has returned to the spotlight with his threats to impose trade tariffs on several countries. Although Japan has not yet been directly affected, many market participants fear it will not be spared.
Despite positive economic reports, Japan's economic stability remains under pressure from global political factors. The tightening of U.S. trade relations under Donald Trump adds uncertainty to the markets, making investors nervous about potential economic deterioration. Past incidents show that the White House's actions can trigger a chain reaction affecting the direct participants in trade wars and neighboring economies. Meanwhile, Japanese authorities are trying to assure the market that domestic economic conditions remain strong enough to support the yen and further rate hikes. Positive unemployment and industrial production data should theoretically boost confidence in the economy, yet reality undermines these optimistic forecasts. Increasingly, investors seek refuge in the U.S. dollar, selling the Japanese yen, which further complicates the country's overall financial climate.
I will rely primarily on the implementation of scenarios No.1 and No.2.
Scenario No.1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 155.03 entry point (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 155.77 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.77, I plan to exit buy trades and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip retracement. The best strategy for buying the pair is to return on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario No.2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 154.54 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.03 and 155.77 can be expected.
Scenario No.1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 154.54 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.75, where I plan to exit short trades and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip retracement. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario No.2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.03 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.54 and 153.75 can be expected.
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