05.02.202510:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is struggling to extend its recovery from the 1.0200 level, which marked the lowest level observed since January 13, fluctuating within a range around the weekly high reached earlier. Spot prices have remained virtually unchanged throughout the day amid mixed fundamental signals.

According to the JOLTS job openings and labor turnover report released yesterday, there is a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, which supports the outlook for further Federal Reserve policy easing. Markets are factoring in the possibility that the U.S. central bank will cut borrowing costs twice this year. Additionally, a risk-on sentiment is keeping the U.S. dollar near its weekly low, acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

However, traders seem reluctant to take aggressive long positions due to concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. Furthermore, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank undermines the euro, limiting any significant growth in the EUR/USD pair.

Uncertainty regarding U.S.-EU trade relations will remain a critical factor for traders, as potential tariffs could negatively impact eurozone economic growth and, consequently, the euro's value.

The market's primary focus continues to be on the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could have a significant influence on the EUR/USD pair's future direction. Traders should closely examine this data to assess the labor market's condition and anticipate potential Federal Reserve actions. Stronger-than-expected data could lead to a dollar appreciation against the euro. Conversely, weaker figures would likely contribute to a further dollar decline, supporting a rise in the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators have not yet entered positive territory and remain in the neutral zone. This indicates a lack of strength for further recovery in the pair.