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The USD/CAD pair remains in consolidation, trading within a narrow range near the psychological level of 1.4300, while holding above the 1.4260 level, which represents the year's low and was retested on Wednesday.
The current sideways movement is driven by anticipation of significant economic data, which could influence the pair's next direction. In particular, investors are awaiting key employment reports from both the U.S. and Canada, which will have a major impact on the market.
The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to shape market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and will play a crucial role in driving demand for the U.S. dollar. Given the dominance of U.S. economic data, it is likely that the NFP report will overshadow the Canadian employment data, providing the USD/CAD pair with a stronger directional push.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish stance are forcing USD bulls into a defensive position, creating a headwind for the pair's upward potential. Uncertainty over potential Fed rate cuts continues to weigh on the U.S. dollar, limiting USD/CAD's ability to gain ground.
Additionally, recovering crude oil prices are lending support to the Canadian dollar, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter.
Further uncertainty stems from U.S. trade policies and the Bank of Canada's cautious outlook. Investors have already digested Donald Trump's recent decision to delay the implementation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, reducing trade-related pressure. At the same time, the Bank of Canada's dovish tone is preventing traders from taking aggressive long positions on the Canadian dollar, particularly after USD/CAD recently hit a more than 20-year high.
Investors will closely watch the employment reports, as they could provide key signals on future currency market trends and influence capital flows.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, reinforcing a bearish outlook for USD/CAD in the near term.
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