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The euro is trading around 1.1792 within the downtrend channel formed since early February and retreating after encountering strong resistance around the 5/8 Murray, a level that coincided with the upper band of the downtrend channel.
If the euro consolidates below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA in the coming hours, we can expect it to continue falling until it reaches the 4/8 Murray around 1.1718. We predict even a sharp break below this channel and consolidation below the 4/8 Murray in the medium term, so EUR/USD could reach the psychological level of 1.1500.
On the contrary, if the euro consolidates above 1.1840 in the coming hours, it could mean a change in the trend, and we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 6/8 Murray around 1.1962 and even reach the psychological level of 1.2000.
Given that the outlook remains bearish for the euro, any technical rebound is likely. As long as the instrument trades below 1.1840, it will be seen as a signal to continue selling with targets at 1.1718 and 1.1620.
The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we expect the euro to be under bearish pressure in the coming days.
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