14.02.202513:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to reach the key psychological level of 1.0500.

This strengthening is driven by President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, which has weakened the U.S. dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from declining U.S. Treasury yields—the 2-year and 10-year yields currently stand at 4.31% and 4.53%, respectively.

Today, traders should focus on the upcoming U.S. retail sales report, scheduled for release during the North American session. This report is the last major economic event of the week and is expected to show a slight decline of 0.1% in January, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month.

Meanwhile, core Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation in the U.S. rose to 3.6% year-over-year in January, exceeding the expected 3.3%. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until the second half of the year, maintaining interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range for an extended period.

The euro could also face obstacles. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujcic stated on Thursday that markets are pricing in three rate cuts this year, calling this a reasonable expectation. He suggested that the ECB may remove its restrictive policy stance in its March statement, considering the anticipated decline in services inflation. This could create additional headwinds for EUR/USD in the coming months.

From a technical point of view, the pair found the nearest resistance near the round level of 1.0500 in the area of 1.0480. When overcoming this zone, the pair may stop in the 1.05350 level. It is followed by a round level of 0.0600. And while the oscillators on the daily chart are in positive territory, prices will head north.

On the opposite side, the pair finds support at 0.04500, followed by the 50-day SMA and the next support level at 0.0380. If prices fall below this level, deeper losses will accelerate.