12.03.202514:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: NZD/USD: The Pair Struggles to Recover

The NZD/USD pair is facing difficulties in its recovery attempts from the 0.5680–0.5675 level. Amid modest U.S. dollar strength and anticipation of U.S. consumer inflation data, spot prices remain under pressure, trading 10% lower than the previous day's level.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy. This, in turn, will impact the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the NZD/USD pair. At the moment, traders are exercising caution, unwinding some of their bearish dollar positions, particularly after the greenback's recent decline to its lowest levels since October 16.

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, along with deflationary pressures in China that weigh on risk-sensitive currencies, are also influencing NZD/USD. Falling Chinese consumer prices and increased U.S. tariffs add additional risks, which could negatively impact the New Zealand dollar.

However, a significant rally in the U.S. dollar remains uncertain, given expectations of Fed rate cuts in response to slowing economic activity caused by tariffs. Positive sentiment in equity markets could also limit the dollar's upside, providing some support for the NZD. This underscores the need for a cautious approach before initiating aggressive bearish positions in NZD/USD, as the recent rebound may not yet be exhausted.

Moreover, technical oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting that further downside may be limited.