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The British currency has recently gained significantly against the dollar due to two key factors: the weakness of the U.S. currency amid recession risks in America and uncertainty about the future state of the U.S. economy.
The pound's rally was further supported by trade tensions and growing expectations that the Bank of England will not rush to cut rates, along with persistent hopes that planned infrastructure investments will support economic growth.
However, the strong bullish momentum seen earlier is fading as the dollar stabilizes and investment promises remain unfulfilled. From a technical standpoint, the pair is forming a classic reversal pattern—a rising wedge. The inability to break above the strong resistance level of 1.3000, along with a clear divergence between price and oscillators, could trigger a notable decline in the pair. A move below 1.2960 could serve as a signal for this bearish scenario.
The price is currently above the middle Bollinger Band and aligned with the SMA 5 and SMA 14. The RSI is gradually declining, while Stochastic is above the 50% level but turning downward. The MACD is displaying a strong divergence signal, also turning lower.
A drop below 1.2960 could open the way for a decline towards 1.2850 and potentially even lower, to 1.2800.
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