16.04.202511:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to draw investor attention, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty in financial markets.

Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing uncertainty in trade relations between the U.S. and China makes gold an attractive safe-haven asset. Investors seek refuge in gold during periods of instability.

Fed Policy Easing: Expectations of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve are supporting gold prices at elevated levels. Forecasts of a 100-basis-point rate cut in 2025 create favorable conditions for the precious metal's upward momentum.

Weak U.S. Dollar: The weakening U.S. dollar—currently trading at levels last seen in April 2022—also contributes to higher gold prices. The yellow metal typically appreciates when the dollar weakens.

Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily and 4-hour charts shows slightly overbought conditions, signaling the need for caution among bullish traders. It also suggests that a short-term correction may be necessary. Therefore, traders may want to wait for a period of consolidation or a moderate pullback before entering new long positions.

In the event of a correction, support may be found in the $3246–3245 level, as well as near the $3230–3229 zone at the Asian session low. A deeper decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity, likely limited by the psychological level of $3200.