21.04.202501:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: British Pound: Weekly Preview

Several fairly interesting reports were released in the UK, but they almost did not impact market participants' actions. Demand for the British pound increased on all five days except for the second half of Wednesday. On Wednesday, the UK published the most important inflation report, which showed a stronger-than-expected slowdown. The pound managed a minimal decline, although a stronger reaction could have been expected. Therefore, the new week's news flow may have only a limited impact on the GBP/USD pair.

The economic calendar includes the same usual business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors, which may decline in April, as well as retail sales, the volume of which could also drop. Thus, the British pound should not count on support from the economic backdrop. However, it does not currently need it, as the market continues to increase demand for the pound even on days when Donald Trump refrains from introducing new measures against the world that he deems "unfair" toward America. The only noteworthy event is the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who may share the central bank's expectations for economic growth and inflation in the new trade reality.

Based on the above, the dollar's decline may continue even without new tariffs from Trump or strong data from the UK. Of course, we must also consider the news flow from the US, but I remind you that, at this point, nothing seems capable of saving the dollar. Even multiple hawkish statements from Jerome Powell and his open confrontation with the dovish-minded Trump have not affected the exchange rate of the American currency, which continues to fall rapidly and almost unopposed.

Wave analysis of EUR/USD

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a new upward trend section. Donald Trump's actions have reversed the previous downward trend. Therefore, the wave pattern will soon entirely depend on the position and decisions of the US president. This must constantly be kept in mind. Judging from the wave structure alone, I previously expected a three-wave correction in wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended and took a single-wave form. Thus, the formation of wave 3 of the upward trend section has begun. Its targets could extend up to the 1.2500 level, but achieving them will depend solely on Trump.

Wave analysis of GBP/USD

The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may experience numerous shocks and reversals that do not conform to wave patterns or technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 is now complete, as quotes have surpassed the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we can expect the formation of an ascending wave 3, with the next targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541—assuming that Trump's stance on trade policy doesn't make a 180-degree turn, for which there is no indication.

Core principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often prone to change.
2. If you're unsure about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.