02.05.202501:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin: Who's Behind the New Accumulation and Where Is the Price Heading?

Amid a steady outflow of coins from exchanges, renewed futures market activity, and a rise in short-term holders, the world's largest cryptocurrency lays the groundwork for a potential move that could shape the market for months.

Scenarios vary—from euphoria to stagnation—but all require careful analysis. Let's focus on the key questions: what's happening, who is behind the current accumulation, and what should traders expect in the coming weeks?

Greed Index Engaged: Short-Term Holders Return to the Scene

If the crypto market has learned anything from history, it's to pay attention to short-term holders. They've twice predicted major Bitcoin moves in recent years—once before the ETF-fueled rally and again ahead of the Trump inauguration-driven spike.

Today, CryptoQuant analysts are again observing heightened activity among those holding Bitcoin for less than a week. This isn't just noise—it's a structural signal. In the past, an increase in such addresses has always preceded rallies.

We're seeing the same pattern now: weak hands are starting to buy in. For seasoned traders, this isn't a reason for emotion—it's a warning. The market is entering a reaccumulation phase, and a sharp impulse move may soon follow.

Accumulation Grows: Whales and Institutions Awaken

A total of 8,000 BTC has been withdrawn from Coinbase. That's not a drop in the ocean—that's $763 million in liquidity pulled off exchanges. This isn't retail greed—it's institutional investors and large private funds accumulating off-exchange. According to analysts, such moves have historically aligned with the beginning of bull market phases.

In other words, Bitcoin isn't just rising—it's being bought to hold. Institutional capital is back in the game for the first time since January. This is also confirmed by realized capitalization rising to a record $882.2 billion—a metric based on the actual cost at which coins were acquired, not the market price.

Futures Fuel the Market: Binance Sees $2.2B Growth in Open Interest

Amid these developments, Bitcoin futures open interest on Binance has surged from $7.5 billion to $9.7 billion—a 29% increase in three weeks. These aren't just numbers—they indicate traders are positioning for leveraged bets. In 2021, a similar rise coincided with a breakout to the $60,000–$65,000 range. Today, the setup looks familiar but has higher targets: $100,000 and, in case of acceleration, $110,000 and beyond.

CryptoQuant emphasizes that futures activity is rising even as spot market supply is shrinking. In an environment of rising demand, this creates a compressed spring effect. A single trigger—whether positive macro data or a muted geopolitical reaction—could send the price surging in a single day.

Crowd Psychology and Whale Behavior: When to Expect the Impulse?

If Bitcoin were a living organism, it's now showing high adaptability. Investors spooked by March–April uncertainty are back in accumulation mode. The on-chain momentum index has reached 0.8, meaning most holders are now in profit, but we're not yet at the phase of mass selling.

CryptoQuant outlines three scenarios:

1. Bullish Breakout — repeating 2017 and 2021 patterns, where a surge followed on-chain consolidation. Target: $150,000–$175,000.
2. Consolidation — trading in a $90,000–$110,000 range until autumn. A scenario favorable to institutions, offering time to accumulate.
3. Correction — if the index falls below 0.75, a drop to $70,000 is possible. This would trap weak hands and create fresh entry points for whales.

Given the current structure, the first two scenarios remain the most probable. This is due to the lack of panic selling, steady coin outflows from exchanges, and reduced retail pressure.

Price at $96,000: Approaching a New Psychological Threshold

Bitcoin has spent three days testing the $96,000–$96,500 zone, which is the highest level since February. Meanwhile, support at $93,000 has held firm against seller pressure multiple times, indicating strong buying interest behind the scenes, likely from algorithm-driven funds.

Suppose BTC consolidates above $97,000; the path to $100,000 opens. This isn't just a round number—it's a psychological milestone. Once breached, FOMO could grip both retail and institutional players. At that point, the market flips—and we could see a "second January" with new highs.

What Traders Should Do Now

For intraday trading, two levels matter: $93,000 as support and $97,000 as resistance. A daily close above the latter would be a strong technical signal to enter long positions.

For swing and position traders, the key zone is $90,000–$92,000 as an entry on pullbacks. A breakout above $100,000 with confirmation opens the door to $110,000–$115,000 within weeks.

Conclusion: The Market Awaits a Trigger — and It Could Come Suddenly

Bitcoin is once again at a tipping point. On one side are accumulation, exchange withdrawals, and rising futures activity. On the other, uncertainty and global volatility. One macroeconomic surprise or a major investor announcement could be the trigger.