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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday failed to continue its upward movement. Overnight, it consolidated below the 1.3344–1.3357 level, then quickly recovered to this zone and rebounded from it. The movements in both directions show that traders don't know what to do with the information at hand. Technically, a rebound from the 1.3344–1.3357 level allows for a forecast of a new decline in the pound toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205. However, I'm not making any bold predictions just hours before the MPC's decision.
The wave situation lately has been simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the peak of the previous wave, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the "bullish" trend is preserved, but it's more of a sideways trend. Therefore, it will be difficult for bulls to push the price above 1.3425 without new statements from Donald Trump about raising or introducing import tariffs.
On Wednesday, the news background did everything it could for the bears. Despite market expectations for a more dovish tone from Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair made no mention of possible rate cuts in the future. Moreover, he suggested that the key rate may not be lowered at all in 2025 due to a potential rise in inflation. And inflation remains the top priority for the FOMC, despite Trump's calls for lower rates to boost growth. Trump doesn't care about inflation, and Powell doesn't care about the economy Trump is responsible for—an interesting situation indeed.
Today, within a few hours, the Bank of England will announce a 0.25% rate cut, but the pound is showing little concern. More important will be the central bank's forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment. All attention will be on the accompanying statement.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began to fall toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. No impending divergences are observed on any indicator. The ascending trend channel continues to indicate a "bullish" trend. The news background remains negative for bears, so I am not expecting a sharp drop in quotes for now.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category has become more "bullish" over the past reporting week. Long positions held by speculators decreased by 2,957, while short positions dropped by 6,426. Bears have lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 24,000 in favor of bulls: 91,000 vs. 67,000.
In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but recent developments may prompt a long-term market reversal. Over the last three months, long positions have risen from 80,000 to 91,000, and short positions have dropped from 80,000 to 67,000. More importantly, over the past 14 weeks, long positions rose from 59,000 to 91,000, while short positions fell from 81,000 to 67,000.
News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:
Thursday's calendar includes four events, three of which are significant. The information background may notably impact trader sentiment today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Sales were possible upon closing below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart or after a rebound from this zone, targeting 1.3265 and 1.3205. Purchases will be viable upon a close above the 1.3344–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3425.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3205–1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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