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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair twice rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1383, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1265. These movements fit perfectly into the horizontal channel of 1.1265–1.1383. Thus, upon reaching the 1.1265 level, we might expect another reversal in favor of the euro and a new rise toward the 1.1374–1.1383 level.
On the hourly chart, the wave pattern has shifted. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. This indicates a sideways trend. However, this sideways movement could signal a trend reversal. Recently, the waves have been very weak and small, indicating low trader activity. There hasn't been much news from the White House, and traders are awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations.
The news background on Wednesday was significant, but traders largely ignored it. Bears launched a new offensive after the FOMC meeting, as monetary policy remained unchanged. Once again, Jerome Powell resisted Donald Trump's pressure and demands to cut interest rates. As a reminder, according to the U.S. president, high interest rates are slowing the economy, while his own tariffs supposedly don't. And if they do, Powell should fix the situation and help America. However, the Fed's task is to keep inflation at or below 2%. And it continues to focus on this goal. Trump's trade war increases inflation risks, meaning Trump is obstructing Powell's goals, and Powell is obstructing Trump's. But this "game" was started by the U.S. president, not the Fed chair. Bears launched a modest attack last night and early this morning after Powell made it clear he has no intention of rushing to cut rates.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the upward trendline. However, the pair has been trading sideways lately, so we can't confirm a bounce from or a break of this line. On the 4-hour chart, the decline may continue toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1213, but it's better to focus on the hourly chart for now, where the sideways trend remains and offers better timing for a potential breakout. No impending divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 183 long positions and closed 10,586 short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has long returned to "bullish"—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 196,000, while short positions have fallen to 120,000. Just a few months ago, the situation was the opposite, with no signs of a turnaround.
For 20 consecutive weeks, large players were offloading euro positions, but now they've been cutting shorts and adding longs for 12 straight weeks. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still supports the dollar, but Trump's policies weigh more heavily on traders, potentially exerting a dovish influence on the Fed and triggering recession risks for the U.S. economy.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
On May 8, the economic calendar includes two events, neither of which is expected to have much market impact. Thus, the news background is unlikely to affect sentiment on Thursday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Sales of the pair were possible yesterday from the rebound off 1.1374 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1265. Today, it's advisable to move stop losses to breakeven and hold positions. Buy positions can be considered from a rebound off 1.1265 targeting 1.1374, or on a close above 1.1383.
Fibonacci Grids:
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