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On Thursday, the UK released strong GDP data but failed to spark noticeable activity in the currency market, as the growth came solely from the services sector. In Q1, GDP rose 0.7% and increased by 0.2% in March. However, industrial production experienced a contraction of 0.7% in March. This was also reflected in the trade balance, which posted a larger-than-expected deficit of -£19.87 billion versus the forecast of -£19.10 billion. The pound rose by 45 pips, mainly due to a 0.14% decline in the US Dollar Index.
The pound could have risen further, but it encountered technical resistance at 1.3311, which it had already attempted to break during the Asian session. The "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the Marlin oscillator has now fully formed. The oscillator's signal line has moved into positive territory. We expect the oscillator and the price to continue rising toward the nearest target at 1.3433. After that, the next objective will be 1.3545, the upper boundary of the price channel.
On the four-hour chart, the price rises above the balance and MACD lines, and the current candle has opened above the 1.3311 level. The Marlin oscillator rises in the positive zone, indicating an upward trend.
This trend could be broken, and the price could return to the support zone of 1.3184–1.3208—only if it consolidates below the MACD line around the 1.3260 level.
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